Saturday, February 24, 2007

How many to the Big Dance?

About 2 weeks until selection Sunday and a few ACC Teams are in trouble.

RPIs are

North Carolina (24-4, 10-3 ACC) — 2
Duke (21-7, 8-6) — 9
Maryland (21-7, 7-6) — 17
Virginia Tech (19-8, 9-4) — 22
Boston College (18-9, 9-5) — 29
Clemson (19-8, 5-8) — 35
Florida State (17-11, 5-9) — 41
Georgia Tech (18-9, 6-7) — 44
Virginia (18-8, 9-4) — 47
N.C. State (14-12, 4-9) — 119
Wake Forest (13-14, 4-10) — 121
Miami (11-16, 4-9) — 149

UNC, Duke, Maryland, VT, BC, and Virginia are in barring something unusual. N.C. State, Wake, and Miami have no chance short of winning out.

That leaves Clemson, FSU, and GaTech with a shot. Tech looked dead 2 weeks ago, but N.C. State's collapse in Alexander has ignited their comeback. After a win in Cameron, FSU looked like a lock, but injuries and loss after loss leaves them desperate for wins. Possibly the most interesting situation in the country is Clemson. After the 17-0 start, 2-8 really hurts their chances, especially if the committee really does look at last 10. I really believe Clemson has a good team. Beyond poor free throw shooting, they are solid with some really nice players and veteran guards. Watching them against Duke this week, more and more it just looks like a confidence issue. Not that Oliver Purnell isn't a very good coach, because he is, but you almost get the feeling that if you could put Sidney Lowe on that bench for a bit just to help them believe in themselves again, they could go on quite a run.

A friend of mine keeps pushing App State for an at-large bid, with an RPI of 51. They've got 3 or 4 quality wins, but honestly, who do you think the tougher out in the ncaa would be, Clemson of App State?

Clemson's next 3 games are
-At BC
-At VT

Win 2 out of 3, and I think they are in. Anything less, and Tampa will include some must wins for Clemson.

Photo's are Oliver Purnell in his days at ODU, Oliver now, and Oliver drinking away his sorrows after losing in the NIT openning round this year, as portrayed by Morgan Freedman.


Anonymous said...

Clemson had better win 2 of 3 or be playing in the 1:00 game on Sunday, March 11 or they'll be hosting a first round NIT game.

If I'm a higher seeded team, I don't want to see either Clemson and ASU in an early game.

Here's something to worry about if you are planning on being a high NCAA seed and want to play your 1st & 2nd round games in Winston-Salem. Where is the selection committee going to put ASU if they win the Southern Conference Tournament?

Ken White said...

Clemson and GT didn't quite get it done. I think ASU has serious chance to be in Winston for sure. Here is an interesting scenario. You could see both UNC and UVA in Winston, maybe UVA as high as a 3 maybe? Then ASU as a 14, setting up a rematch between Cavs and App.

Anonymous said...

The selection committee does have a sense of humor... though I don't think anyone is Charlottesville would find that match-up too funny.