Friday, February 29, 2008

Crunch Time...

Coach K seeks 800th win...
Wake needs to win out...
Virginia not a must win for Miami...
Ty Lawson sighting?
Maryland fighting to avoid Thursday at the ACC Tournament and an NIT bid...
Nine Wins not enough for the Hokies...



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With a win in the RBC Center Saturday, Coach K will reach the 800 mark. As a State fan, sometimes it seems like all 799 have come against the Pack. As dismal as the season has become for the Pack, a Duke win would be just more salt in an open wound. I'm sure Gavin Grant does not want the lasting memory from his senior day to be Coach K celebrating #800. All State has left to play for now is pride... or a shot at an NIT bid.

Wake must finish 9-7 in the conference or be playing on the Sunday of the ACC Tournament to make it to the NCAA Tournament. The Deac's RPI ranking of 76 is not going to get them to the Big Dance with an 8-8 record. All three of their remaining games are winnable if you overlook the fact that two of them are on the road. Even if the Deacs fall short, the future looks very promising in Winston-Salem.

Miami is not in dire straits just yet. Their 26th rated RPI gives them a litte wiggle-room, but a loss to Virginia would put them into full panic mode.

Ty Lawson may play against BC... Why? The Heels should be able to take care of BC without their star point guard. Why in the world would you want his first game back to be against Tyrece Rice. If Lawson doesn't re-injure his ankle trying to defend Rice, he's defiantly going to injure his pride trying to stop Rice's scoring.

Everyone has circled the Clemson-Maryland game as being a key match-up. A couple of weeks ago, we thought this game would decide 3rd place in the regular season. While it may still factor into who gets the 3rd seed in the tournament, Maryland finds itself in a fight with Va Tech for the fourth and final opening day bye. Since Va Tech holds the tie-breaker over Maryland, the Terps are going to have to win-out and hope the Hokies lose one down the stretch. Thursday's win at Wake Forest was huge. If I were Gary Willliams, I would still be very worried about the Terps 59th ranked RPI. It has improved in the last couple of weeks, but the 1-5 record against the top 50 is not doing the Terps any favors.

With eight conference wins it may appear that Va Tech is on the verge of another NCAA bid, however they are in danger of not getting into the dance if they make it to 9-7. Not all ACC won loss records are created equally. The Hokies .451 league strength of schedule is next to last in the conference. The only quality wins that the Hokies have in conference play are the wins against Maryland. Their other six wins are against Virginia (2), BC (2), Ga Tech and Florida State. Combine that with an 0-5 record against the top-50 and a 51st ranked RPI and your looking at hosting NIT games instead of making NCAA plans

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